Many businesses have less history than forecasting textbooks assume. Short or patchy data calls for simpler methods and more judgement.
Approaches
- Start with simple baselines such as last year's pattern or recent averages.
- Borrow strength from similar products or regions.
- Combine statistical output with expert adjustments, recorded and tracked.
- Use ranges rather than single numbers.
- Update frequently as data arrives.
Always compare any model with the simple baseline. If it can't beat it, use the baseline.