The Register reported on 8 April 2026, citing a TrendForce analysis, that Nvidia's next-generation Rubin GPUs might make up a smaller share of 2026 shipments than first expected. This is an analyst forecast, not a company disclosure, and Nvidia had not commented in the article.
As reported
- TrendForce forecast that Rubin would be 22% of Nvidia's high-end GPU shipments in 2026, down from an earlier forecast of 29%, with Blackwell at 71%.
- Causes cited include HBM4 validation time, a move to new network cards, higher system power and more demanding liquid cooling.
- Consumer DRAM prices were forecast to rise another 45% to 50% in Q2 2026 after a 75% to 80% rise in Q1.
- US export-rule exceptions allowed H200 sales to China under conditions, and production was reported to be restarting.
The planning lesson
- Avoid committing multi-year capacity plans to one hardware generation.
- Keep workloads portable across providers and regions.
- Prefer efficient models where quality allows, so you are less exposed to supply shocks.
Forecasts change. Treat the numbers as a signal of uncertainty, not as facts about next year.